Population growth in Melbourne’s outer suburbs linked to housing affordability and community infrastructure
New demographic analysis by KPMG shows a notable rise in birth rates across Australia’s regional and greenfield urban areas.
KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rawnley said there’s opportunities for families outside of the city.
“It’s no surprise Melbourne’s greenfield suburbs are prime locations for growing families, offering bigger backyards, plenty of space and much more affordable housing than areas closer to the city.
“The western and northern growth corridors are where we are seeing the biggest baby boom, which is feeding into overall population growth in these areas.”
Local, family-orientated initiatives, like the Kalkallo North Community Playgroup, are seeing demand increase.
Ashleigh Dogan is one of the Volunteer Facilitators at the playgroup. She said the weekly program attendance has grown in the last eight months.
“It’s rewarding to welcome new families into the space. Seeing friendships form and children engage in learning through play is a real highlight.”
“We’ve made strong connections with local families and created a calm, engaging environment.”
The playgroup is planning events for the 12 months ahead, including sensory days and a football club partnership day.
There are also plans to launch a dads’ group to increase father involvement in early childhood engagement.
The trend highlighted in KPMG’s analysis aligns with broader demographic patterns identified by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which also points to outward migration from capital cities to regional and peri-urban areas post-COVID.
Cost of living, access to schools and healthcare, and lifestyle amenities are primary drivers.
KPMG’s analysis found that while Melbourne’s falling fertility rate, it was the outer suburbs that were bouncing back with new bubs.
“Melbourne has really struggled to stabilise its fertility rate since the pandemic,” Mr Rawnsley said.
“The city did not have a post-covid spike in births like most other cities, possibly because its lockdowns were more protracted than both Sydney and Brisbane.”
Melbourne suburbs with the most births in 2024:
Mickleham – Yuroke: 854
Rockbank – Mount Cottrell: 787
Wollert: 617
Werribee – West: 590
Clyde North – South: 559
KPMG: Birth rates bounce back in the regions, but cost-of-living holding back growth in the cities
Photo by Pat Whelen on Unsplash